Keith’s weekly property news October 3-2021
There has still been a lot of chatter about how the legislative changes on how the valuation reports are done and how it will impact the property market and CBI. For the secondary market, I feel the effect will be very muted, if at all. For the new-build market, it looks like it will generally cause a 10-20% increase in the amount CBI buyers will have to spend, though certainly some projects may not show any price difference. We will research what those may be. Keep in mind, it may not necessarily mean these are better projects. There are a lot of factors and unknowns about that. It may also be that these projects have simply devised a ‘work-around’ on the valuations.
Nonetheless, interesting times. I sense an almost visceral reaction from Cameron in this video. I find it very odd he did not even touch on the secondary market, which property-wise, dwarfs the new build projects. Well, it is not odd at all really…
I also pick up quite a bit of ’spin’. I suspect there are a lot of frantic calls being made to try and patch up deals in progress.
We anticipated this a few weeks ago with our Mint bulk purchase. Due also to the Turkish Lira depreciation, we are having to supplement purchases with super budget properties (offices which we will convert to studios, etc) that are in themselves a great investment in order to cross the CBI threshold. The valuations look like they will come in at -10 to-15, possibly a bit better than industry comparables.
I could speculate endlessly on the reasons for the new legislation. A few things are certain. This aims to catch fraud by where people who were buying property for, say 175K, and having it written up to 250K. Definitely, the government would want to stamp that out. Probably, also the government would want to stamp out over-pricing that may occur when developers get too cosy with their ‘hand-picked’ appraiser.
Some other thoughts are purely speculative, but may have some elements of truth; it may be a move to secretly increase the CBI amount or at least to test the waters (or, in any event, this might be a side benefit). They could always ease off if it really chokes up the deal-making. Finally, it could be a measure to cool things down so the Turkish consumer has a more level playing field. On the much wilder side (and I do not really believe this), it could be a naked money grab where developers close to the government continue to get rubber-stamp evaluations, thus enabling them to do super-brisk sales. I would like to re-iterate that I do not think this is the case; rather I just want to bring up the range on the speculation that is out there.
Again, I am standing by my thesis that I feel, one way or another, we are going to see changes in the CBI program in the next 6-12 months.
Ok, as for non-CBI news. Market feels healthy. Some trend in rising prices and certainly in asking prices, but the point at which transactions are being made seem sensible. Still, I remain surprised when I hear some of the amounts that are being paid for Bosphorous view properties. They sit on the market for a while usually, but then someone eventually comes in and picks them up and I am always surprised at the price. I said to myself I would stop being surprised many, many times. Call it the ‘Bosphorous Effect’; it really is a unique and iconic view that in many ways does deserve a high price tag, but geeessss…….
Property links distributed during weekly zoom session