Keith’s Weekly Property News October-29-2023

Keith’s Weekly Property News October-29-2023

Due to a sudden influx of last minute CBI-ers I will keep it light again this week.
So, let’s start off with the CBI program. There certainly has been increased “chatter” about possible changes or abolishment. As always, I really dislike speculation, and I certainly have heard nothing official. However, I think common sense would suggest that at some point in the future all of the above are possible, likely and maybe even certain. It will not carry on indefinitely. Anymore than that, I’m not willing to go out on a limb and comment on. The program continues to receive its fair share of criticism and political backlash. Also, being the best CBI program in the world has in many ways raised its profile.
Adding fuel to the fire was the snap decision to raise the residency through real estate amount from 75K USD to 200K USD, a very logical and long overdue move. The 75K amount would not seem to meet any government objective, unless it was an attempt to rid Istanbul of all its basement properties for sale. You cannot realistically buy a property for 75K anymore, nor would you have been able to for a long while now. So, for all intents and purposes, 75K was dead in the water anyway.
Of course, it does raise the question of whether or not the government would like to move to the Golden Visa approach over citizenship. No idea on that, but again, all options would seem to be on the table.
Market slump rages on, both from anecdotal gatherings as well as official data. It appears to be a bit slow filtering down into the pricing, but as I suggested before, some of the optimism and buoyancy of sellers is being put to the test. The tone of back-channel discussions when making offers is a bit more flexible.
In the zoom session, we will go over the numbers on several properties that were recently transacted on, crunch the numbers, and make our case for the value on those.
We will have a look at Kocaeli and also lay out the investment case for selected properties there, which in short, looks like a 40 to 50% gain in real terms over the next 2 to 3 years, while also accounting for rental income. It may not jolt you out of your armchair, but it is a super-safe play, with a bit of zing on the upside. Spice-free zone.
As always, Izmir remains a strong market, with some solid fundamentals, though not nearly as easy to find desirable properties as it once was. Nonetheless, it would be non-sensical to put it on the back burner.
The ‘great unwind’ is probably just in the first inning in Bodrum, Antalya, and a few other coastal spots.
Airbnb? No comment. Everyone is waiting for new legislation.
Mid and long term down a bit. Seasonality, but still demand, of course.

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